'I'm obsessed with the Oscars. Here's which movies are going to get nominated (and why).'

Hello, my name is Stephanie, and I'm mildly obsessed with the Oscars. I've been watching the awards show since I was a child, and I've hosted a yearly Oscars party with an ever-growing charcuterie board since 2016, which is really no small feat when you consider I've spent a lot of my career working in entertainment media. That's like being a news journalist and asking to take election day off. It's wild.

When it comes to the Oscars, I'm always trying to up the ante for myself. A few years ago, I decided to watch all the nominated films, and I've done that every year since. Then, I decided to stay up and watch the livestream announcement of the nominees. Now, I'll be doing that forever. Last year, I watched every single Best Picture winner. This year, I plan to watch every film that won Best Director. My dream is that one day, I will have watched every film that has won an Academy Award.

If you're thinking 'this sounds like a lot of work', or 'this doesn't sound like fun'… look. You have a point, because I do have a habit of taking a hobby (watching movies! Fun!) and turning it into a chore (watching EVERY movie. Stressful!). But, let's not dwell on that, because that's not what we're here for, and because that is a conversation for me to have with my therapist!

Rather, let's talk about the 2025 Oscars! The 2025 Academy Award nominations are set to be announced next month, and as you can probably gather from the lore dump I just gave you about myself, I have some thoughts, ideas, and opinions about what we can expect to see.

Without further ado, here are my top five 2025 Oscar predictions:

Anora will be a frontrunner.

Anora for Best Picture! Image: Neon.

My favourite film of the year, Anora, is thankfully a lock for nominations in Best Picture, Best Director for Sean Baker, Best Actress for Mikey Madison, and Best Original Screenplay, and I'd also be inclined to say that if Anora continues to perform well at the precursor awards (think Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards, Critics' Choice etc.) then Yura Borisov will also get a Best Supporting Actor nod.

To put it bluntly, Anora is giving Big Frontrunner Energy, and in my opinion, it's so well deserved. Mikey Madison's star-making performance is electric, and Sean Baker — after being snubbed for Best Picture and Best Director for The Florida Project (one of my favourite films of all time) — is finally getting his flowers, too.

My sole complaint here is that Mark Eydelshteyn — aka "the Russian Timothee Chalamet" — seems to be getting shut out of the awards conversation in favour of Borisov's supporting performance. Why not both?!

Wicked will get a bunch of nominations.

My own mixed feelings on Wicked aside, the film is critically acclaimed (and for the most part, deservedly so!). It's also performing well at the box office, which means it's probably got a Best Picture nomination in the bag by now. When it comes to the rest of the categories, though, things get interesting.

After the Golden Globe nominations, it's safe to say that Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande are very well positioned to pick up Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress nods, respectively. I suspect that when it comes down to the actual winners, Grande is a more likely winner, as Erivo will be up against Mikey Madison and Demi Moore (more on her in a moment) in the Best Actress category.

Furthermore, there's always a danger with two part films, as it gives Oscar voters an opportunity to go 'Oh, well, we can give it to Cynthia next year when Part Two comes out.'

Notably, Wicked won't be eligible for the Best Original Song category, as it doesn't have any original songs in it. But don't worry — they'll have their shot at that category in 2026, as composer Stephen Schwartz recently confirmed that Wicked Part Two will feature two new, original songs.

Demi Moore will be nominated for The Substance.

Demi Moore in The Substance. Image: Mubi.

The Moore-aissance is here, folks, and as a millennial woman of a certain age who grew up watching and re-watching Now and Then, I couldn't be happier.

Moore has been receiving rave reviews for her performance as Elisabeth Sparkle from the second the first film critics walked out of The Substance's Cannes Film Festival premiere. Months later, the momentum pushing Moore toward her first Oscar nomination is going strong. You see, the Oscars isn't just about the actual performance, it's about the campaign, and Moore has been putting in the work to secure her nod, and it's already paying off.

The Substance outperformed expectations at the Golden Globes, and while the Globes don't always align with the Oscars, the fact that The Substance managed to pick up not just a nod for Moore, but nominations for Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy, Best Supporting Actress for Margaret Qualley, Best Director for Coralie Fargeat and Best Screenplay — Motion Picture is honestly huge. Watch this space!

Now, don't get me wrong, here. I'm not saying that her performance isn't worth the nomination, but when it comes to the Oscars, you also have to think about the narrative behind it — what would a Demi Moore nomination say about the state of The Academy in 2025? Let's consider it for a moment.

1. It's a comeback role — catnip for Oscar voters, TBH.

2. It's emotionally raw — Moore shares many parallels with her character, as a woman in Hollywood whose early career was built on roles that showed off her body. Combine this with the comeback story and Moore's early-season campaigning? She's ready to give Mikey Madison a run for the win, TBH.

3. It's a horror movie. Now, this one is a double-edged sword, because The Substance is a gory body horror, which is typically the exact kind of thing that Oscar voters revile. With that being said, there's also been a lot of talk about how the Oscars consistently overlooks horror movies, particularly in the Best Actress category. After snubbing Toni Colette for Hereditary, Florence Pugh for Midsommar, and hell, it was a long shot, but Mia Goth for Pearl, perhaps they're feeling the pressure to course correct, and Moore has given them a perfect opportunity to do so.

Kieran Culkin will be nominated for A Real Pain.

Kieran Culkin and Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain. Image: Searchlight Pictures.

Kieran Culkin has been acting since he was a child, and real ones know he's always had the chops to dodge any 'You're only famous because your brother is the kid from Home Alone' nepo-brother allegations. After all, Culkin scored his first Golden Globe nomination back in 2002 for Igby Goes Down.

Of course, it was his work as perpetual menace to society Roman Roy in Succession that made him a household name — and scored him a Golden Globe and Emmy Award win for the show's emotional final season.

Now, Culkin is back with his first post-Succession role, and A Real Pain shows that yes, he's still got it. Written and directed by his co-star Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain gives the viewer exactly what they want from Culkin: that same charming Roman Roy energy in a slightly different font. It's a perfect role for Culkin, and he could very well take home the win.

Timothée Chalamet will be nominated (but probably not win) for A Complete Unknown.

Elle Fanning and Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. Image: Searchlight Pictures.

Okay, before the Timmy stans come for me, I'm not saying he doesn't deserve to win! I haven't even seen A Complete Unknown yet. But what I do know is this: The Academy, historically, doesn't hand awards to male actors while they're young.

The youngest Best Actress winner to date is Marlee Matlin, who won for Children of a Lesser God when she was 20. Close behind her is Jennifer Lawrence, who won in 2012 for Silver Linings Playbook when she was 22. Comparatively, the youngest Best Actor winner to date is Adrien Brody, who won for The Pianist in 2002 at the age of 29. Since the Oscars began in 1929, there have only been seven actors who have won under the age of 33.

Remember how Leonardo DiCaprio had to be nominated four times before he finally won Best Actor for The Revenant in 2016? Or remember how Austin Butler spent, like, three full calendar years talking like Elvis Presley but lost Best Actor to Brendan Fraser (I cannot stress this enough, Oscars voters loveeee a comeback story)?

I'm not saying it's impossible, by any means. Chalamet's nomination for A Complete Unknown would be his second nod, but you know who he'll be going up against? Adrien Brody, the current titleholder for 'youngest Best Actor winner'. He'll also have to compete with Ralph Fiennes for Conclave, a two-time nominee who's never won. My thinking? It'll go to Brody or Fiennes in the end, because the Academy will think, 'Eh, we've got plenty of time to give Timothée an Oscar'.

The Brutalist will be a nominations frontrunner.

Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones in The Brutalist. Image: A24.

Okay, while we're on the topic of Adrien Brody, let's talk about The Brutalist. An over three-and-a-half hour epic historical drama, critics have been raving about this one since it premiered at the Venice International Film Festival in September.

Directed by Brady Corbet (Vox Lux, or as I know him, "the brother from thirteen"), The Brutalist picked up seven Golden Globe nominations this week, which is nothing to sneeze at! I missed this one at the Adelaide Film Festival in October, but if all the reviews calling it a masterpiece and singing its praises are anything to go by, this will be one to watch when it's released in Australia come January.

At this stage, I'd say we can expect to see The Brutalist score a Best Picture nod, as well as Best Director for Corbet, Best Actor for Brody, Best Supporting Actress for Felicity Jones, Best Supporting Actor for Guy Pearce, Best Original Screenplay, and several below-the-line categories. Watch this space!

Emilia Pérez will also be a major part of the conversation.

Selena Gomez in Emilia Pérez. Image: Pathé.

Emilia Pérez led the Golden Globe nominations with 10 nods, and if the reviews are anything to go by, it's on a path to Oscars glory as well. If you're wondering why I'm not saying it will be a frontrunner for the Oscars just yet, though, I think we need to see a little more of the Oscar campaign first.

You see, the Golden Globes splits its nominations into two categories: Drama, and Comedy or Musical. Emilia Pérez is nominated in the Comedy or Musical categories, and historically, it's harder to turn those nods into Oscar nominations, as the Academy tends to skew toward dramas. When you add Wicked and The Substance into the mix, you start to see where Emilia Pérez might start losing its lead across the board come Oscar nominations morning.

And then, we also have to consider that it's a Netflix film. And look, love the Oscars so much (if you can't tell!) but I'll say this: sometimes, the Oscar voters like to get a little… petty and snobby? Perhaps? And then they snub movies from streamers. To date, Netflix has picked up 23 statues over the years, with All Quiet on the Western Front being its biggest winner to date — it won four awards. Otherwise, the bulk of the streaming giant's wins were handed out at the peak of the pandemic, and six of their wins have been in the short film categories.

So, okay, where does that leave us for Emilia Pérez, then?

At this stage, I think it'll get a Best Picture nomination, at least one Best Supporting Actress nomination (for Zoe Saldaña and possibly Selena Gomez), a Best Adapted Screenplay nod, and a few below-the-line nominations, including at least one (but probably two) nominations for Best Original Song. As for what it will win? It's taking the Best Original Song trophy.

Gladiator II will underperform.

Paul Mescal in Gladiator II. Image: Paramount Pictures.

Back in 2000, the world LOVED Gladiator. It was the second-highest grossing film of the year (after Mission: Impossible II) and was nominated for a whopping 12 Academy Awards. It won five, including Best Picture and Best Actor for Russell Crowe.

With that kind of track record, it's safe to say that the pressure was on for Gladiator II, a sequel to the 2000 film that was 24 years in the making. But upon release, the reviews from critics were that it was… fine.

Now, I don't want to be the one to say that director Ridley Scott is in his flop era, because I don't think it's that dire. But I will say this: "fine" has kind of been the vibe from critics for many of his recent films since 2016, when he released The Martian (his most successful film to date). There was All the Money in the World, which is the one they digitally removed Kevin Spacey from. There was The Last Duel, which basically no one saw. There was House of Gucci, which is… certainly a lot of fun! And there was Napoleon, which is a film I've seen but could not tell you a thing about, unfortunately.

Basically, for a four-time Best Director nominee, people have come to expect more than what these films have had to offer, so Gladiator II had high expectations placed upon it.

Come Oscar nominations, I think we can expect to see Denzel Washington pick up a Best Supporting Actor nod, but I wouldn't put money on a Best Picture nod, a Best Director nod, or even one for Paul Mescal, unfortunately. Beyond Washington, I think it's likely to pick up a few more nods in the technical categories — think Production Design, Sound, that kind of thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if it walks away empty-handed at the end of the ceremony.

Anyway, thanks for joining me on this journey, and stay tuned, because the race to the Oscars is only just beginning!

Feature image: Universal Pictures / Supplied.